Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Output Growth in Ethiopia: Co-Integration and Vector Error Correction Model Analysis

Melaku Adinew Aytehgiza, Gebrekirstos Gebresilasie


This study examined the effect of climate change on agricultural output growth in Ethiopia. Co- Integration and Vector Error Correction Model estimation technique and data for the period 1981-2016 was used. Changing in annual mean temperature, annual mean rainfall, carbon dioxide emission and forest depletion were used to attribute variables for climate change. The result of vector error correction model indicate that both in the long-run and short-run, carbon dioxide emissions negatively affect agricultural output growth in Ethiopia. Annual temperature and annual rainfall negatively affect agricultural output growth in the long run and short run respectively.  On the other hand, forest depletion has positive effect on agricultural output growth both long run and the short-run respectively. Policy maker should develop policies to reduce sources of carbon dioxide emissions and introduce mitigation and adaptation measures to sustain the agricultural economic growth.




agricultural output growth; climate change; VECM; Ethiopia

Full Text:



African Development Bank Group (ADBG), (2010). Ethiopia’s Economic growth Performance: Current Situation and Challenges: Economic Brief: Volume1, Issue 5

International Monetary Fund (IMF), (2018). The Federal Democratic Republic Of Ethiopia, IMF Country Report No. 18/18. International Monetary Fund 700 19th Street, NW Washington, D. C. 20431 USA

World Bank, (2016). The 5th Ethiopia Economic Update Country Report, Why So Idle? Wages and Employment in a Crowded Labor Market

Wondifraw Z., James W. and Haile K. (2016). African Economic Outlook www.africaleconomicoutluk.org

Wondwossen B. and Seyoum T.,(2014). The Economic Contribution of Copyright Industries in Ethiopia. World Intellectual Property Organization. W

Central Statistics Agency (CSA), (2016). Agricultural Sample Surveys 2015/2016 (2008 E.C.), Volumes I-IV. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA), Addis Ababa.

Adefris T., Girma M. and Habtamu A., (2013). Impacts of climate change on crop production in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

United States Agency for International Development (USAID), (2015). Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia Summary of Findings; Technical Report; Washington, Dc 20006

FAO, 2013. FAO STAT Database on Agriculture; Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations; http://faostat3.fao.org

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report.htm

Conway D, and Schipper ELF, (2011). Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change; Journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha

Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE), 2011. Green economy strategy of Ethiopia; Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

USAID, 2012. Climate Change Adaptation in Ethiopia: Fact Sheet Internal resource.

Ahmed M. Hussen, 2004. Principles of Environmental Economics: Economics, ecology and public Policy, Second edition.

Yalew, Amsalu W.; Hirte, Georg; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan (2017). Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia, CEPIE Working Paper, No. 10/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE), Dresden http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-227554

Temesgen Tadesse, (2007). Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture: Ricardian Approach; Policy Research Working Paper 4342

Zenebe Gebreegziabher, Jesper Stage, Alemu Mekonnen, and Atlaw Alemu, (2011). Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: Environment for Development: Discussion Paper Series, EfD DP 11-09

Di Falco S., Yesuf M. , Kohlin G. and Ringler C., (2011). Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Low-Income Countries: Household Level Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia; Springer Science Business Media B.V. 2011 ; Environ Resource Econ DOI 10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y

Berisso M. ,(2016). Impact of Weather Variations on Cereal Productivity and Influence of Agro-Ecological Differences in Ethiopian Crop Production; Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia

Arega S. and Molla A., (2018). Effect of climate variability on crop income and indigenous adaptation strategies of households, International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 10 Issue: 4, pp.580-595, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2016-0039

Mideksa Torben K., (2009). Economic and distributional impacts of climate change: The case of Ethiopia; Global Environmental Change; journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha

Paul Evangelista, Nicholas Young and Jonathan Burnett, (2013). How will climate change spatially affect agriculture production in Ethiopia? Case studies of important cereal crops; Springer Science+ Business Media Dordrecht; Climatic Change 119:855–873 DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0776-6

Seid Nuru, (2012). Climate Change and Economic Growth in a Rain-fed Economy: How Much Does Rainfall Variability Cost Ethiopia? Ethiopian Economics Association

Gujarati, (2004). Basic Econometrics New York, Fourth Edition, Macgraw-Hill Companies.

Wooldridge, J.M., (2003). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, International Edition.

Harris R.I.D (1995), Using Co-integration Analysis in Econometric Modeling prentice Hall/Harvester Wheatsh, University of Portsmouth

Ogbuabor Jonathan E. and Egwuchukwu Emmanuel I.,( 2017). The Impact of Climate Change on the Nigerian Economy; International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy; ISSN: 2146-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com

EDRI (2010) Preliminary assessment by the EDRI of impacts, cost and feasibility of strategy Options Climate Resilient Green Growth initiative

Birhan G.,(2017). Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in South Gonder Zone,m Ethiopia: World Journal of Agricultural Research, 2017, Vol. 5, No. 2, 102-110

Delince J. Ciaian. P. and Witzke Heinz-Peter, (2015). Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach; Journal of Applied Remote Sensing 097099-1 Vol. 9, 2015,

CIAT; BFS/USAID. (2017). Climate-Smart Agriculture in Ethiopia. CSA Country Profiles for Africa Series. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT); Bureau for Food Security, United States Agency for International Development (BFS/USAID), Washington, D.C. 26 p.

Nardone, A., Ronchi, B., Lacetera, N., Ranieri,M., and Bernabucci, U.,(2010). Effects of Climate Changes on Animal Production and Sustainability of Livestock Systems. Livestock Science, 130:57-69.

Rust J.M. & Rust T., (2013). Climate change and livestock production: A review with emphasis on Africa; South African Journal of Animal Science 2013, 43 (No. 3)

Central Statistical Agency (CSA).(2018). Agricultural Sample Surveys 2017/18: analytical report. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA), Addis Ababa

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33258/birex.v1i4.461

Article Metrics

Abstract view : 87 times
PDF - 45 times


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.